By: Jacob Kessler
THE VILLAGE REPORTER
jacob@thevillagereporter.com
Numbers released by the Ohio Department of Development show a steep decline in population numbers for the State of Ohio. According to the report, Ohio’s population is projected to decline by approximately 675,000 people by 2050, with a majority of the counties losing residents. Some counties however, mainly around the more major population centers, show an increase.
These counties are located near Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati. The county closest to Fulton and Williams Counties that shows an increase is Wood County, which shows an increase of 1.65%. The next closest county would be either Lorain County near Cleveland or Union County near Columbus.
For our subscription area, numbers show a decline of 13.84% for Fulton County and 13.14% for Williams County. For context, numbers from 2020 show Fulton County with a population of 42,713 and Williams County with a population of 37,510.
With this new projection, numbers are expected to sit at 36,801 for Fulton County and 32,228 for Williams County. As for the State of Ohio, numbers are expected to fall from 11,799,448 to 11,123,896, a decrease of 5.7%.
This decrease for Ohio comes despite the fact that the United States is expected to grow its population numbers by 17.3%, from 331,449,281 to 388,922,000, an additional 57,472,719 people.
Despite this change, Ohio is expected to remain the 9th most populous state, after being overtaken by Georgia and North Carolina sometime around 2030.
Reasons given in the report for the population change include fertility, mortality, and migration. The report states that woman are delaying childbirth and having fewer children overall, with Ohio’s 2020 rate equating to approximately 1.7 total births on average, per Ohio resident.
As for mortality, rates show an increase of 15% between 2019 and 2020. Mortality rates have also been 15% higher than the national average, with Ohio being ranked 38th in the nation for life expectancy.
As for migration, the report stated, “The results of Census 2020 indicated that Ohio gained approximately 65,000 (net) new residents through domestic and international migration over the past decade. Continued, modest net immigration is projected to partially offset losses because of negative natural change.”
“If net migration to Ohio does not remain positive in the years to come, overall population loss will likely exceed figures presented here.”
The report also highlighted age groups that are expected to attribute to the state population decline, with 0-14 showing an 8.4% decrease, 15-24 showing an 8.7% decrease, 25-64 showing a 4.5% decrease, 65-74 showing a 16.1% decrease, 75-84 showing a 9.3% increase, and 85+ showing a 24% increase.
Furthermore, the report states regarding natural changes, “By 2045, if current fertility and mortality rates remain unchanged, Ohio’s annual natural decline will reach its peak of about 37,000, with about 124,000 births and 161,000 deaths annually. The natural decline, rather than out-migration, will be the driver of overall population loss in Ohio.”
In 2020, annual resident deaths outnumbered births for the first time in Ohio’s recorded demographic history since at least 1950, according to the report.
